Syria – Concern for religious minorities

Source: Oannes Consulting GmbH (Simon Jacob), North Syria - Qamishli December 2015, Christmas fair 

Syria – Concern for religious minorities

For many years, I worked as a journalist in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, Iraq and southeast Turkey. Together with media outlets such as ARD, ZDF, n-tv and renowned newspapers such as Die Zeit, I produced reports, documentaries and content for Western reporting. During the coronavirus pandemic, I ended my career in journalism and returned to management and the industry from which I originally came. The ultra-modern, technology-driven environment in which I used to work and in which I am active again has taught me to look at developments rationally and as emotionally as possible – an approach that I ascribe to German engineering virtues.

But I have to admit that I sometimes find it difficult, especially when it comes to Syria. I myself was born in this historic region before my parents fled with me to Germany in 1980. Today, I see myself as a proud citizen of Germany, but I still feel a deep connection to my relatives, friends and loved ones who continue to live in Syria and other parts of the Middle East. As part of a religious minority in the region, I am extremely concerned about the developments there.

On the one hand, I hope that forced displacements and Islamist-inspired violence can be prevented, as this would further fuel the civil war. On the other hand, there is a risk of developments in the opposite direction, which would have a profound negative impact on the entire Middle East, including Israel and Europe.

Syria's diversity must be preserved

Syria has a diverse religious, ethnic and cultural landscape. After the fall of the regime, the future of this diversity is now at stake, and the country is at a crossroads. Syria's Christians, in particular, have legitimate concerns about their future. The community of Alawites, to which the former ruler Assad himself belonged, must also fear acts of revenge.

The HTS group, which is partly composed of Islamist factions, has promised to uphold civil rights and, in particular, religious freedom for all. Nevertheless, many minorities, such as Christians, Druze and Alawites, have legitimate doubts as to whether the new rulers are serious about their promises and will actually implement equal treatment for all religious communities.

Source: Simon Jacob, Johannes Consulting GmbH. 2015 Northern Syria, embedded in the military SDF operation “Volcano” against IS.

Syria's future will depend crucially on whether human rights, especially for minorities, are respected. The result will either be a “failed state” – a scenario that should not be in the EU's interest – or a new beginning in the form of a confederal system with ethno-religious boundaries that allows a respectful life for all citizens.

Unfortunately, we are already receiving reports that indicate that the situation could develop in a negative direction. For example, reputable sources criticize an alleged ban by the new rulers on the traditional celebration of St. Nicholas, which has a long tradition in many regions of the country. According to local sources, a corresponding instruction has been sent to the leading clergy of the Syrian churches.

Protection of religious minorities

Syria has a historically diverse church landscape that had come to terms with the Assad regime over the years. Although Christians did not enjoy full civil liberties, the regime granted them a certain “protected status” that allowed them to survive. The clergy maintained close relations with the rulers – a marriage of convenience based on the fear of radical groups such as the Islamic State (IS), which has caused untold suffering in Syria and Iraq. The expulsions by Islamist groups before the emergence of IS have also not been forgotten.

Today, uncertainty and fear prevail in many places, especially in areas where the group HTS (Haiʾat Tahrir al-Sham) claims power. However, the media often overlooks the fact that, alongside Islamists, secular groups, liberal Sunni tribes, and Kurdish and Christian military units were also involved in liberating Syria. Although they are not part of the HTS formation, they are in contact with it. In northern Syria, Kurds, Arabs and ethnic Syriacs (as Syrian Christians call themselves) have established an autonomous region in which Christians can live relatively equally. Although the conditions are not comparable to Germany, they represent progress compared to the rest of the country – as long as Turkey does not intervene. Ankara views the Kurdish-dominated region as a threat, especially the YPG, which is close to the PKK, and classified as a terrorist organization in Europe. In urban centers such as Damascus and Aleppo, the future of the Christian minority remains uncertain. In Latakia, the heartland of the Alawites, there are likely to be very serious concerns about violence and the threat of expulsion by Islamists. The Kurds will now also be wondering whether they should not move to the Kurdish-dominated and autonomous north of the country.

Consequences of the revolution for minorities

Syria is a country with a large number of ethnic and religious communities. Before the division of the Levant by the British and French (see Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916), the various communities lived in tribal structures with economic and cultural exchange. Nevertheless, the social status of the Alawites, for example, was low due to their religious orientation, which led to tensions – conflicts that could now break out again. These tensions would particularly harm minorities such as the Druze, Christians or Yazidis, who would find it difficult to defend themselves.

Syria's future depends crucially on external actors such as the US and Turkey, who pursue different interests. France and the UK also play a role, while Germany – despite taking in many refugees – has limited political and strategic ties to the region. The EU should take a more active role in the interest of its values and security, to protect minorities and promote rule of law, reconstruction, and economic progress by working with Turkey and Arab states.

Source: Simon Jacob, Oannes Consulting GmbH. 2019, northern Syria, near the Turkish border. In conversation with a Sunni tribal leader and politician who opposes IS and the Assad regime.

Such stabilization could not only prevent new waves of refugees, but also boost both Syria and Europe economically. For example, Syria could serve as a transit country for pipeline gas in cooperation with Turkey. This would significantly reduce energy costs in Europe while providing a greener alternative to importing liquefied natural gas. Such cooperation would not only promote stability, but also lay the foundation for security and the long-term protection of minorities.

Who are the new rulers?

HTS (Haiʾat Tahrir asch-Scham) is a heterogeneous alliance of various groups, including Islamists, moderates, secular units and other military formations. The media portrayal of it as a purely Islamist group often does not do justice to reality. The military success of HTS was made possible by the support of the US-sponsored SDF (Syriac Democratic Forces) and the Turkish-dominated SNA (Syrian National Army). It is likely that Western intelligence services are supporting the coordination and efficiency of the rebels with the help of state-of-the-art technologies such as satellite reconnaissance.

The question remains, what interests are being pursued by Western supporters, including the US, France and Great Britain? Ankara also plays a decisive role. In Germany, on the other hand, it is to be feared that its influence on the region will continue to remain low, although important decisions are needed here.

It is already possible to observe that the media are changing their linguistic style in connection with the HTS. They are talking about “moderate” Islamists. This is an indication that they are working towards an alignment with the new power structure. With all the associated expectations of all the actors who play a role.

Perspectives

The Levant is at a decisive turning point. The artificial borders once drawn by France and Great Britain have effectively lost their significance. The new rulers now face a choice: either they succeed in establishing a confederal structure based on civil rights, security and economic prosperity, or the country will once again be plunged into civil war, which could further destabilize the entire region.

The EU must abandon its restraint and act strategically. Realistic approaches are needed that are based on the pragmatic realities on the ground and not guided by ideological wishful thinking. A Western idea of democracy will not be enforceable in Syria. Instead, the stabilization of the country requires long-term investments in security, infrastructure and economic development, together with all actors involved – inside and outside Syria. Only in this way can both Syria and Europe be stabilized.

Simon Jacob, Augsburg,

10.12.2024